Chesterfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

395
FXUS63 KDTX 242334
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
734 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the area
this afternoon.

- Summer-like temperatures Memorial Day through Wednesday, with low
chances for precipitation. This warm up will be followed by a cool
down, with seasonable temperature late week and through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Deep lapse rates near moist adiabatic resulted in potential
instability and a cluster of elevated showers over Metro Detroit the
past hour. Low confidence exists in cloud trends early this evening
with enough daylight hours left to cause a small amount of
insolation. Recent rain will likely lead to additional low level
saturation and broken stratocumulus. Will maintain a more pessimistic
MVFR ceiling into the evening. Low confidence exists then late
tonight regarding any fog potential. Center of surface high pressure
does build into far southern Lower Michigan late which could result
in a favorable conditions for a surface inversion. However, could
very well end up with more of a low IFR stratus deck and the
guidance is mixed particularly for the Detroit taf sites. Will
maintain the inherited IFR visibility restrictions and monitor
trends. Daytime mixing Monday should allow clouds to mix out and
prefer low sky fraction.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms anticipated.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight. Low Monday.

* Low for visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings at less than 300 ft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

As mid-level troughing continues to sweep through the region today,
the ongoing cluster/line of showers and embedded storms will
continue to move east across the area. Low level moisture looks to
hang around into the overnight hours, but we should start to see
these pesky, lingering low clouds scatter out tomorrow morning.

Another weak trough is progged to move east across the Upper Great
Lakes Monday through Tuesday. Ahead of and south of this next
shortwave, we will see strengthening warm air advection and a
significant warm up compared to the weekend. Models are fairly
consistent with 925mb temperatures around 18C advecting into the
area on Monday, and then further increasing to 20-22C by Tuesday.
With good mixing processes at play each day, this warm air advection
will help support temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower
80s for Memorial Day and then mid to upper 80s for Tuesday. The
warmest conditions over the next two days are expected up across the
Tri-Cities and portions of the Thumb. There is a very low chance
(<15%) that showers or storms develop during the afternoon hours on
Memorial Day up across the Tri-Cities and Thumb region. Moisture
transport and forcing are more impressive further north.

By Tuesday, a weak cold front extending off of low pressure well
northeast of the region slowly drops south across northern Michigan.
Mid-level flow is fairly unidirectional along the frontal boundary,
so don`t expect it to move north/south much during the day. Thus,
have maintained a dry forecast. By Wednesday, this front will get
start to feel the influence of another shortwave digging south across
Ontario into Quebec, and will finally drop south across the area.
This will bring the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. Ahead of the front, temperature on Wednesday likely climb
into the 80s for much of the area, but some areas may not warm as
much depending on the timing of the backdoor cold front.

High pressure builds in behind the cold front ushering in drier and
more seasonable conditions through the end of the week and into
next weekend. Daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows dropping
down into the 40s/50s are expected.

MARINE...

Light winds continue to prevail across the region. High pressure
builds into the area tonight and remains in place through Tuesday,
favoring the development of southwest flow across the central Great
Lakes. Southwest winds may increase across the Saginaw Bay area on
Tuesday, with southwest winds increasing to around 20 knots. By
Wednesday, high pressure becomes quite elongated, stretching across
the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. A cold front then drops south
across the area late Wednesday, with the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The mid-week cold front is not expected to be
particularly strong, so currently not anticipating any significant
ramp up of winds behind the front. Another area of high pressure
builds into the region behind the front and will lead to varying
winds throughout the end of the week. There may be periods with
enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave activity in
nearshore zones at times.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......JA


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.